Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
