A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
