Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
